The living board · rebuilds every 6 hoursBoard as of 2026-09-11T10:20:53.448931+00:00

BullsvsBears

As of September 11, 2026, the board reads 100% bull / 0% bear. Every piece of evidence for and against gold, weighted by impact × confidence × freshness. Items decay with a 5-trading-day half-life and retire below 0.4 weight — this board cannot argue last month's tape. One event can only sit on one side: dedupe is enforced, and evictions are logged below.

Current split
BULL100weight 2.8
weight 00BEAR
1 bull item · 0 bear items this build Weights recalibrated Sundays from the Brier scoreboard
30-day history

How the beam has moved

Bull share of total board weight · builds every 6 hours

50% 70% 30% now 100%
Bull share (below 50% = bear-tilted) 2026-08-12 → 2026-09-11

Board history: 100% bull share, unchanged from 100% around 2026-08-28.

The weighted evidence

Live items — decaying in real time

Bull · total 2.8

Weekly regime BULL2.8

Weekly EMA structure is bullish at $4,348.88

impact 4 × conf 0.7price_action · 0.0d old

Bear · total 0

No live bear items.

How this board works

Rules the board cannot break

Weight = impact × confidence × freshness. Impact (1–5) is how much the event can move gold; confidence (0–1) is how sure we are it's true and framed on the right side; freshness decays with a 5-trading-day half-life.

Astro items are capped by earned skill. An astrology item's confidence can never exceed the pillar's live Brier-derived skill. Today that's 25% pillar weight — the board enforces humility automatically.

One event, one side. Every item carries an event_key. If two claims about the same event land on opposite sides, the higher-weighted framing wins and the eviction is logged publicly above.

Update cadence. The board rebuilds every 6 hours from bot state, prediction markets, and the astro calendar. Pillar weights recalibrate every Sunday from the scoreboard. Intra-week regime breaks fire Telegram alerts immediately.

Nothing survives on reputation. Items retire below 0.4 weight. A claim from three weeks ago is gone unless re-registered with fresh evidence — which resets its timestamp and its accountability.

Not investment advice. This is a scoreboard of arguments, not a recommendation. The board has been wrong before and will be again — that record lives on the methodology page.