As of July 28, 2026, the board reads 45% bull / 55% bear. Every piece of evidence for and against gold, weighted by impact × confidence × freshness. Items decay with a 5-trading-day half-life and retire below 0.4 weight — this board cannot argue last month's tape. One event can only sit on one side: dedupe is enforced, and evictions are logged below.
Board history: 45% bull share, down from 57% around 2026-07-14.
Weekly move +29.0pts, implied probability now 0.62
Weekly RSI at 24.8 — historically a reversion zone
Weekly move -1.0pts, implied probability now 0.555
Weekly move +17.0pts, implied probability now 0.29
Weekly move +9.0pts, implied probability now 0.5
Pre-registered astro window, Jul 29
Weekly move -4.0pts, implied probability now 0.215
Weight = impact × confidence × freshness. Impact (1–5) is how much the event can move gold; confidence (0–1) is how sure we are it's true and framed on the right side; freshness decays with a 5-trading-day half-life.
Astro items are capped by earned skill. An astrology item's confidence can never exceed the pillar's live Brier-derived skill. Today that's 25% pillar weight — the board enforces humility automatically.
One event, one side. Every item carries an event_key. If two claims about the same event land on opposite sides, the higher-weighted framing wins and the eviction is logged publicly above.
Update cadence. The board rebuilds every 6 hours from bot state, prediction markets, and the astro calendar. Pillar weights recalibrate every Sunday from the scoreboard. Intra-week regime breaks fire Telegram alerts immediately.
Nothing survives on reputation. Items retire below 0.4 weight. A claim from three weeks ago is gone unless re-registered with fresh evidence — which resets its timestamp and its accountability.
Not investment advice. This is a scoreboard of arguments, not a recommendation. The board has been wrong before and will be again — that record lives on the methodology page.