Gold is trading around $4,150 per ounce on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, holding near critical support after a volatile start to the week as traders await the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes for fresh clues on the interest rate outlook. The precious metal steadied following Monday's dip to $4,140, with losses limited by signs of a cooling US labor market that have reduced expectations of a September rate hike.
Last week's Non-Farm Payrolls report delivered a significant miss, with the US economy adding only 57,000 jobs in June versus the 110,000 consensus forecast—the smallest gain in four months. Revisions to prior months were equally concerning, with April revised down by 31,000 and May by 43,000, representing a total downward revision of 74,000 jobs. This has prompted markets to scale back near-term rate hike expectations, with the probability of a September Fed increase now standing at roughly 50%, down from 66% before the employment report.
The dollar index is trading below 101 on Tuesday, remaining under pressure as the weaker labor data undermines the hawkish Fed narrative. However, the greenback has strengthened 0.86% over the past month and remains up 3.48% year-over-year, creating continued headwinds for gold. Rising real rates and elevated Treasury yields continue to challenge the non-yielding metal, despite dollar weakness providing some support.
Central bank buying, which had been a structural pillar of gold demand through 2024 and 2025, has moderated in 2026. Poland led April purchases with 14 tonnes, while China added 8 tonnes—its highest since December 2024, extending its buying streak to 18 consecutive months. However, Q1 2026 net central bank purchases of 244 tonnes were offset by 115 tonnes of sales, primarily from Turkey and Russia facing fiscal pressures. JPMorgan forecasts approximately 755 tonnes of central bank purchases for full-year 2026, still historically elevated but below the 863 tonnes purchased in 2025.
Gold ETF flows present a mixed picture. After record outflows in March 2026 of $12 billion, flows have stabilized but remain cautious. May saw modest outflows of $2 billion, with year-to-date flows still positive at nearly $17 billion. Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper noted that approximately 298 tonnes of gold inside ETFs is now held at a loss around $4,000, creating a structural supply ceiling on any near-term recovery as underwater holders wait to exit.
The geopolitical landscape remains complex. While the interim US-Iran peace agreement has allowed energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz to recover, oil prices have edged lower to around $69-72 per barrel. This easing of inflationary pressures has reduced expectations of further rate hikes, which should theoretically support gold. However, the safe-haven demand that drove gold to $5,595 in January 2026 has largely evaporated as the Fed's policy stance has turned hawkish under Chair Kevin Warsh.
Looking ahead, Wednesday's FOMC meeting minutes will be critical for gold's near-term direction. Any dovish signals could provide support, while hawkish commentary would likely extend pressure on the metal. JPMorgan maintains a cautious outlook, forecasting gold to average $4,300 in Q3 2026 and $4,500 in Q4 2026, noting that demand from key sectors may not be as strong as previously expected. The firm's longer-term forecast remains bullish at $6,300 per ounce by end-2027, supported by structural central bank demand and fiscal concerns, but the path from current levels remains uncertain.
Technically, gold is caught between support at $4,120 and resistance at $4,171. A break below $4,100 could trigger stops and accelerate selling toward the March lows near $3,960, while a sustained move above $4,200 would signal renewed bullish momentum. For now, the metal remains in a consolidation phase as markets assess whether the dovish shift in Fed expectations is sufficient to overcome the structural headwinds of elevated real yields and ETF selling pressure.