Gold fell to $4,185 as a hawkish Fed shift drove a broad dollar rally.
Bull case
- Record central-bank buying continues to underpin demand (HIGH)
- Q1 2026 central-bank demand ~244t, still historically strong (HIGH)
- Strong private investment demand, 397.7t in Q1 (+50% YoY) (MEDIUM)
- Gold remains a structural reserve diversification play (MEDIUM)
- Long-term ETF holdings still net positive on the year (MEDIUM)
Bear case
- Fed hawkish shift reprices rate-cut timeline sharply (HIGH)
- Dollar index rallies broadly on the repricing (HIGH)
- US-Iran peace agreement removes geopolitical risk premium (HIGH)
- Real yields rising, a direct headwind for non-yielding gold (MEDIUM)
- Momentum broke down through short-term support (MEDIUM)
Levels that matter: Support $4,101 / Resistance $4,194.