Gold is trading near $4,337 on June 8, 2026, recovering modestly from a sharp selloff that pushed prices to their lowest levels since March after Friday's stronger-than-expected US jobs report. The May nonfarm payroll report showed 172,000 jobs added versus 85,000 expected, holding unemployment at 4.3% and keeping annual wage growth at 3.4%. Markets immediately repriced Fed expectations, with futures now implying a 73% probability of at least one 25-basis-point rate hike by year-end, potentially as early as October.
The US Dollar Index surged to 100.07, up over 2% in the past month, providing headwinds for non-yielding gold. Yet the metal has held above critical yearly support at $4,319, reflecting persistent safe-haven demand amid stalled US-Iran peace negotiations. President Trump claimed talks were in the "final stage," but Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there had been "no tangible progress," while Hezbollah rejected a US-mediated ceasefire proposal between Israel and Lebanon. Oil prices remain elevated due to continued disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing inflation concerns that could keep the Fed hawkish.
Structurally, gold remains supported by unprecedented central bank accumulation. The World Gold Council confirmed that central banks purchased a net 244 tonnes in Q1 2026—the highest quarterly total in over 25 years—exceeding both the previous quarter and the five-year average. Poland led with 31 tonnes, Uzbekistan added 25 tonnes, and China's People's Bank purchased 7 tonnes, lifting total holdings to 2,313 tonnes. In April, central banks resumed buying after March's brief pause, adding 19 tonnes led by Poland (14t) and China (8t), extending China's buying streak to 18 consecutive months. J.P. Morgan forecasts central bank purchases of 755 tonnes for full-year 2026, down from the 1,000+ tonne peaks of 2022-2025 but still well above the pre-2022 average of 400-500 tonnes.
This week is pivotal for gold's direction. May CPI data and the University of Michigan's June inflation expectations are due, with markets bracing for potential energy-driven inflation acceleration. The FOMC will release minutes from its April 28-29 meeting on June 17, where the Committee upgraded inflation language from "somewhat elevated" to "elevated" and noted Middle East developments contributing to "a high level of uncertainty." The next live FOMC decision is June 16-17, marking new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first rate decision. Analysts expect the Fed to stay on hold through summer, but any upside CPI surprise could accelerate hike expectations and pressure gold further. Conversely, softer inflation data or renewed geopolitical escalation could spark a rally back toward resistance at $4,475-$4,540.